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Oviedo 1–2 RC Deportivo La Coruña

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 2, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Sergiu Muresan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win51%1.92
Draw28%3.40
RC Deportivo La Coruña win21%4.73

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo −0.551%1.93
RC Deportivo La Coruña −0.549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.64
Over41%2.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Mario Soriano · RC Deportivo La Coruña
28'🟨Ilyas Chaira · Oviedo
37'🟨Mario Soriano · RC Deportivo La Coruña
38'⚽Ilyas Chaira · Oviedo
61'🟨Santiago Colombatto · Oviedo
76'🟨Yeremay Hernández · RC Deportivo La Coruña
77'🟨Federico Viñas · Oviedo
90'⚽Ximo Navarro · RC Deportivo La Coruña

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
6Shots10
3On target3
6Corners7
10Fouls8
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoRC Deportivo La Coruña
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.510.65
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
1.20
coach days1.00152.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.08
corner diff avg (last 5)2.00-4.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.807.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.932.82
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.03
dominance (last 5)0.590.42
elo1555.211479.07
elo momentum (last 5)16.2311.01
eye test v1-0.33-0.41
eye trend v1-0.050.14
first sub minute (last 10)50.5063.30
form points (last 5)11.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.62
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.710.75
league points51.0037.00
league rank3.0017.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.4082.40
possession avg (last 5)50.4054.40
rest days8.007.09
scorer concentration0.340.24
season ppg1.701.28
shot diff avg (last 5)3.60-5.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.6010.60
skill v10.300.74
sot against avg (last 5)2.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.40
squad age28.25—
state index0.49-0.05
sterile dominance v10.240.84
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.220.20
threat rate (last 5)0.240.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.60