← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 1, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Rubén Ávalos
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 67% | 1.43 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.00 |
| Málaga CF win | 13% | 8.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF −1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Almeria −1.25 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.78 |
| Under | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Aarón Ochoa · Málaga CF |
| 11' | ⚽ | Léo Baptistão · Almeria |
| 24' | 🟨 | Kevin Villodres · Málaga CF |
| 33' | 🟨 | Nélson Monte · Málaga CF |
| 53' | ⚽ | Sergio Arribas · Almeria |
| 55' | ⚽ | Daniel Sánchez · Málaga CF |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Antonio Cordero · Málaga CF |
| 68' | 🟨 | Luismi · Málaga CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | Edgar González · Almeria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | UD Almería Stadium |
| coach days | 273.00 | 790.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1543.94 | 1485.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.58 | -3.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.80 |
| league points | 48.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 23.29 | — |
| state index | -0.42 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |