← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 1, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Álvaro Moreno
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Castellon win | 49% | 1.94 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.41 |
| Burgos win | 23% | 4.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burgos −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Castellon −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.68 |
| Over | 43% | 2.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Pipa · Burgos |
| 30' | 🟨 | Marcelo Expósito · Burgos |
| 39' | ⚽ | Álex Calatrava · Castellon |
| 41' | 🟨 | Alberto Jiménez · Castellon |
| 44' | ⚽ | Eduardo Espiau · Burgos |
| 62' | 🟨 | Grego Sierra · Burgos |
| 70' | 🟨 | Álex Calatrava · Castellon |
| 74' | 🟨 | Eduardo Espiau · Burgos |
| 85' | ⚽ | Álex Calatrava · Castellon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alberto Jiménez · Castellon |
| 90' | 🟥 | Alberto Jiménez |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Castellon | Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio SkyFi Castalia |
| coach days | 59.00 | 151.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 1.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1430.24 | 1420.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.19 | -3.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.70 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| league points | 36.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.02 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |