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Burgos 1–2 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: José Guzmán

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win36%2.69
Draw35%2.76
Burgos win29%3.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Burgos +0.2556%1.75
Oviedo +0.2544%2.22

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under71%1.36
Over29%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'⚽Borja Sánchez · Burgos
39'🟨César de la Hoz · Oviedo
40'⚽Alemão · Oviedo
55'⚽Dani Calvo · Oviedo
84'🟨Grego Sierra · Burgos
90'🟨Florian Miguel · Burgos

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
8Shots8
4On target4
4Corners2
15Fouls9
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBurgosOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.600.55
cards avg (last 5)3.202.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de El Plantío
coach days144.00236.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.06
corner diff avg (last 5)1.002.80
corners against avg (last 5)2.402.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.901.69
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.02
dominance (last 5)0.560.62
elo1428.721546.87
elo momentum (last 5)-5.9315.31
eye test v1-0.96-0.03
eye trend v1-0.02-0.54
first sub minute (last 10)51.8047.60
form points (last 5)6.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.000.35
keeper form v10.680.68
league points33.0048.00
league rank19.005.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2082.80
possession avg (last 5)46.0054.60
rest days5.915.80
scorer concentration0.220.33
season ppg1.181.66
shot diff avg (last 5)1.805.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.2013.20
skill v1-0.370.79
sot against avg (last 5)2.402.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.705.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.00
squad age—28.46
state index-0.230.56
sterile dominance v1-0.090.46
threat rate (last 10)0.210.27
threat rate (last 3)0.190.21
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.00