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Ferrol 0–1 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Saúl Ais

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba win39%2.45
Draw31%3.10
Ferrol win30%3.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ferrol +0.2554%1.84
Cordoba +0.2546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.65
Over42%2.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Xavi Sintes · Cordoba
38'🟨Pedro Ortiz · Cordoba
60'🟥Aitor Buñuel · Ferrol
80'🟨Cristian Carracedo · Cordoba
86'🟨Jesús Ruiz Suárez · Ferrol
86'🟨Rubén · Cordoba
89'🟨Álvaro Sanz Catalán · Ferrol
90'⚽Jacobo · Cordoba

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
4Shots13
0On target6
4Corners2
13Fouls13
2Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFerrolCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.620.61
cards avg (last 5)1.602.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de A Malata
coach days
52.00
632.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.762.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.17
dominance (last 5)0.430.63
elo1400.271404.33
elo momentum (last 5)-27.3720.27
eye test v1-0.870.31
eye trend v10.01-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)47.3059.10
form points (last 5)4.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.61—
league points25.0036.00
league rank21.0013.00
matches since blank3.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2078.00
possession avg (last 5)47.8057.60
rest days7.736.71
scorer concentration0.400.29
season ppg0.931.29
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.606.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.2016.00
skill v1-0.340.54
sot against avg (last 5)6.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.005.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.80
state index-1.100.13
sterile dominance v10.100.20
threat rate (last 10)0.190.27
threat rate (last 3)0.210.30
threat rate (last 5)0.210.28
venue ppg (last 5)0.402.60