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Huesca 1–1 Granada

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 16, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Andrés Fuentes

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win38%2.58
Draw33%2.94
Granada win29%3.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada −0.2555%1.78
Huesca −0.2545%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.58
Over39%2.48

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Gonzalo Villar · Granada
37'🟨Jérémy Blasco · Huesca
45'🟥Ricard Sánchez · Granada
76'⚽Patrick Soko · Huesca
84'⚽Lucas Boyé · Granada
89'🟨Lucas Boyé · Granada
90'🟨Oscar Sielva · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots7
3On target1
3Corners7
13Fouls17
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaGranada
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.680.72
cards avg (last 5)1.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Alcoraz
coach days504.00168.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.10
corner diff avg (last 5)2.401.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)7.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)4.121.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.010.07
dominance (last 5)0.460.52
elo1556.061548.98
elo momentum (last 5)34.9221.86
eye test v1-0.640.15
eye trend v1-0.230.44
first sub minute (last 10)63.7061.20
form points (last 5)13.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.55
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.40
keeper form v1—0.76
league points46.0047.00
league rank6.005.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8084.60
possession avg (last 5)44.6053.20
rest days7.008.00
scorer concentration0.230.32
season ppg1.701.68
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.800.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.6013.00
skill v1-0.490.86
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.20
squad age—26.06
state index0.770.34
sterile dominance v1-0.310.36
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.260.31
threat rate (last 5)0.240.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.80