← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 15, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Álvaro Moreno
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Racing Club de Santander win | 41% | 56% | 2.34 | value: +30% |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 29% | 19% | 3.36 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cadiz −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Real Racing Club de Santander −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.58 |
| Over | 39% | 2.48 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Javier Ontiveros · Cadiz |
| 20' | 🟨 | Bojan Kovačević · Cadiz |
| 39' | 🟨 | Mario Garcia · Real Racing Club de Santander |
| 40' | ⚽ | Javier Ontiveros · Cadiz |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Álex Fernández · Cadiz |
| 57' | ⚽ | Chris Ramos · Cadiz |
| 60' | ⚽ | Pablo Rodríguez · Real Racing Club de Santander |
| 66' | 🟨 | Unai Vencedor · Real Racing Club de Santander |
| 72' | 🟨 | Aritz Aldasoro · Real Racing Club de Santander |
| 78' | 🟨 | Moussa Diakité · Cadiz |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Racing Club de Santander | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Campos de Sport de El Sardinero |
| 80' | 🟨 | Fede San Emeterio · Cadiz |
| 80' | ⚽ | Jon Karrikaburu · Real Racing Club de Santander |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Gil · Cadiz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 807.00 | 76.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 1.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1562.59 | 1548.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.84 | 37.76 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 51.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 6.09 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.90 | 27.62 |
| state index | 0.45 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |