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Oviedo 0–0 Eldense

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Mon, Feb 10, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Dámaso Arcediano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win57%1.69
Draw26%3.75
Eldense win17%6.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo −0.7551%1.93
Eldense −0.7549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.62
Over40%2.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'🟨Fran Gámez · Eldense
54'🟨Javi Llabrés · Eldense
67'🟨Carlos Pomares · Oviedo
84'🟨Fede Vico · Eldense
90'🟨Daniel Paraschiv · Oviedo
90'🟨Sergio Ortuño · Eldense
90'🟨Diego Mendez · Eldense

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots5
3On target0
8Corners0
16Fouls13
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoEldense
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.21
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.610.59
cards avg (last 5)2.201.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
coach days224.0040.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.203.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.603.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.807.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.273.47
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.17
dominance (last 5)0.570.51
elo1546.141382.42
elo momentum (last 5)8.00-27.73
eye test v1-0.06-0.09
eye trend v1-0.170.20
first sub minute (last 10)48.2060.10
form points (last 5)9.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.602.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.420.71
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v1—0.59
league points44.0025.00
league rank8.0021.00
matches since blank9.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6074.20
possession avg (last 5)49.6046.00
rest days9.0810.00
scorer concentration0.340.18
season ppg1.630.96
shot diff avg (last 5)3.201.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.8015.20
skill v1-0.01-0.55
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.00
squad age27.71—
state index0.30-0.85
sterile dominance v1-0.09-0.88
threat rate (last 10)0.270.30
threat rate (last 3)0.270.27
threat rate (last 5)0.260.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80