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Málaga CF 1–1 Levante UD

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 8, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Iosu Galech

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Levante UD win38%2.58
Málaga CF win32%3.09
Draw31%3.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF +0.2555%1.75
Levante UD +0.2545%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.75
Over45%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Unai Elgezabal · Levante UD
35'⚽ (pen)Pablo Martínez · Levante UD
55'🟨Manu Sanchez · Levante UD
68'⚽Álex Pastor · Málaga CF
90'🟨Kevin Villodres · Málaga CF
90'🟥Carlos Puga · Málaga CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots13
3On target5
8Corners5
9Fouls9
1Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMálaga CFLevante UD
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.560.58
cards avg (last 5)1.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio La Rosaleda
coach days769.00252.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.400.60
corners against avg (last 5)7.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.713.05
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.06
dominance (last 5)0.360.57
elo1470.391569.41
elo momentum (last 5)-10.4615.63
eye test v1-0.590.37
eye trend v10.420.57
first sub minute (last 10)55.3061.00
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.181.27
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v10.740.69
league points34.0045.00
league rank13.006.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.003.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8083.40
possession avg (last 5)51.8054.40
rest days6.904.92
scorer concentration0.260.19
season ppg1.311.73
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.003.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.4015.40
skill v10.240.83
sot against avg (last 5)6.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.704.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.80
squad age—26.02
state index-0.550.48
sterile dominance v10.710.24
threat rate (last 10)0.200.25
threat rate (last 3)0.180.30
threat rate (last 5)0.180.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60