← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 8, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver De La Fuente
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Castellon win | 42% | 2.32 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
| Ferrol win | 28% | 3.46 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ferrol +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Castellon +0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ (og) | Naldo · Castellon |
| 10' | 🟨 | Aleksa Purić · Ferrol |
| 14' | ⚽ | Raúl Sánchez · Castellon |
| 45' | 🟨 | Giovanni Zarfino · Castellon |
| 45' | 🟨 | Álex Calatrava · Castellon |
| 50' | 🟨 | Alberto Jiménez · Castellon |
| 58' | 🟨 | Giovanni Zarfino · Castellon |
| 58' | 🟥 | Giovanni Zarfino · Castellon |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Josep Señé · Ferrol |
| 78' | ⚽ | Thomas Van den Belt · Castellon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ferrol | Castellon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de A Malata |
| coach days |
| 38.00 |
| 38.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1428.39 | 1391.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.01 | -53.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 47.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 25.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 4.73 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.85 | -1.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |