← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 2, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Pérez
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Eibar win | 44% | 2.18 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.13 |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 25% | 3.92 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Eibar −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.63 |
| Over | 40% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa |