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Almeria 1–1 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Saúl Ais

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win51%1.88
Draw28%3.45
Oviedo win21%4.66

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria −0.552%1.89
Oviedo −0.548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.87
Over48%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Chumi · Almeria
37'🟨Dion Lopy · Almeria
40'⚽Alemão · Oviedo
44'🟨Ilyas Chaira · Oviedo
53'🟨Francisco Portillo · Oviedo
69'🟨Marko Milovanović · Almeria
75'⚽Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria
77'🟨Kwasi Sibo · Oviedo
87'🟨Santiago Colombatto · Oviedo
90'🟨Dani Calvo · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots9
4On target2
1Corners3
13Fouls15
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.650.60
cards avg (last 5)2.202.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueUD Almería Stadium
coach days245.00215.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.000.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.403.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.181.87
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.09
dominance (last 5)0.640.56
elo1563.521543.89
elo momentum (last 5)8.74-10.12
eye test v10.730.26
eye trend v1-0.14-0.18
first sub minute (last 10)48.0044.60
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.371.51
h2 goals (last 10)1.501.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.740.62
league points44.0043.00
league rank6.007.00
matches since blank1.008.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.4078.20
possession avg (last 5)60.4051.40
rest days6.096.09
scorer concentration0.300.32
season ppg1.761.65
shot diff avg (last 5)6.802.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.8014.00
skill v11.310.16
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.605.20
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.604.80
squad age23.2927.71
state index0.520.16
sterile dominance v10.78-0.09
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.270.27
threat rate (last 5)0.250.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.00