← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: José Sánchez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche CF win | 37% | 33% | 2.66 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.91 | fair |
| Mirandes win | 30% | 36% | 3.18 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mirandes +0.25 | 56% | 1.75 |
| Elche CF +0.25 | 44% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 1.45 |
| Over | 34% | 2.89 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Aleix Febas · Elche CF |
| 22' | 🟨 | Jose Salinas · Elche CF |
| 34' | 🟨 | Mathis Lachuer · Mirandes |
| 38' | 🟨 | Bambo Diaby · Elche CF |
| 39' | ⚽ | Urko Izeta · Mirandes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Juan Gutiérrez · Mirandes |
| 47' | 🟨 | Agustín Álvarez · Elche CF |
| 49' | 🟨 | Sory Kaba · Elche CF |
| 49' | 🟨 | Bambo Diaby · Elche CF |
| 49' | 🟥 | Bambo Diaby · Elche CF |
| 50' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mirandes | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Anduva |
| Joaquin Panichelli · Mirandes |
| 62' | 🟨 | Nicolás Fernández · Elche CF |
| 64' | ⚽ | Joaquin Panichelli · Mirandes |
| 81' | 🟨 | David Affengruber · Elche CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 581.00 | 215.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1534.33 | 1596.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.83 | 27.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| league points | 42.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 4.73 | 7.73 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.10 | 1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.51 | 27.16 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 1.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |