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Zaragoza 2–2 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 19, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Andrés Fuentes

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win51%1.91
Draw31%3.25
Tenerife win18%5.67

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza −0.550%1.93
Tenerife −0.550%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.49
Over36%2.73

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'🟨Yann Bodiger · Tenerife
39'⚽Waldo Rubio Marin · Tenerife
52'🟨Aitor Sanz · Tenerife
61'🟨Álejandro Cantero · Tenerife
69'⚽Youssouf Diarra · Tenerife
72'🟨Carlos Nieto · Zaragoza
77'⚽Enrique Clemente · Zaragoza
78'⚽Ivan Azón · Zaragoza
90'🟨Samed Baždar · Zaragoza
90'🟨Josep Gayá · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots11
4On target2
5Corners3
5Fouls17
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.19
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.560.79
cards avg (last 5)3.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de la Romareda
coach days49.0049.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-4.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.207.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.351.10
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.10
dominance (last 5)0.570.41
elo1465.991396.32
elo momentum (last 5)-15.04-30.04
eye test v10.17-1.57
eye trend v10.020.15
first sub minute (last 10)58.1054.70
form points (last 5)4.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v1—0.66
league points29.0015.00
league rank15.0023.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0072.40
possession avg (last 5)48.6041.80
rest days7.098.00
scorer concentration0.200.19
season ppg1.260.68
shot diff avg (last 5)5.00-4.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.007.80
skill v10.15-0.98
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.602.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.001.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.401.60
state index-0.18-0.93
sterile dominance v1-0.30-0.19
threat rate (last 10)0.270.21
threat rate (last 3)0.300.20
threat rate (last 5)0.290.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.00