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Eibar 1–1 Albacete

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 18, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: José Sánchez

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eibar win48%2.04
Draw29%3.25
Albacete win23%4.39

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete −0.552%1.87
Eibar −0.548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.58
Over40%2.47

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Javi Villar · Albacete
4'⚽Ander Madariaga · Eibar
40'🟨Javi Martínez · Eibar
44'🟨Jorge Pascual · Eibar
49'⚽Javier Rueda · Albacete
56'🟨José Corpas · Eibar
87'🟨Jon Guruzeta · Eibar
89'🟨Javier Rueda · Albacete
90'🟨Peru Nolaskoain Esnal · Eibar
90'🟨Nabil Touaizi · Albacete

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots8
4On target4
3Corners1
14Fouls10
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEibarAlbacete
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.600.60
cards avg (last 5)2.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Ipurúa
coach days567.00323.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.04
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.804.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.603.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.301.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.04
dominance (last 5)0.570.49
elo1499.891463.10
elo momentum (last 5)1.76-10.63
eye test v10.49-0.94
eye trend v1-0.010.28
first sub minute (last 10)62.3058.10
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.730.72
league points31.0028.00
league rank10.0015.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.001.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.4076.00
possession avg (last 5)51.6045.00
rest days4.927.09
scorer concentration0.250.19
season ppg1.351.22
shot diff avg (last 5)2.60-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.0010.60
skill v10.38-0.45
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.802.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.202.40
squad age26.64—
state index0.20-0.34
sterile dominance v10.04-0.23
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.290.24
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00