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Elche CF 1–0 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 12, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Rafael Sánchez

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF win52%1.83
Draw29%3.38
Zaragoza win19%5.53

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF −0.554%1.79
Zaragoza −0.546%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.60
Over40%2.44

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Marc Aguado · Zaragoza
21'🟨Dani Tasende · Zaragoza
26'🟨Adrian Liso · Zaragoza
39'🟨Josan · Elche CF
51'🟨Alvaro Núñez · Elche CF
72'🟨Enrique Clemente · Zaragoza
75'🟨Nicolás Fernández · Elche CF
80'🟨Mourad El Ghezouani · Elche CF
90'🟨Elbasan Rashani · Elche CF
90'🟨Alberto Mari · Zaragoza
90'⚽Elbasan Rashani

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots8
5On target1
7Corners0
17Fouls22
5Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricElche CFZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.580.56
cards avg (last 5)2.803.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Manuel Martínez Valero
· Elche CF
coach days195.0042.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d1.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.07
corner diff avg (last 5)2.202.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.003.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.562.05
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.14
dominance (last 5)0.470.64
elo1553.951472.13
elo momentum (last 5)33.84-21.51
eye test v10.070.40
eye trend v1-0.560.09
first sub minute (last 10)56.5056.80
form points (last 5)11.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.160.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
keeper form v10.750.63
league points39.0029.00
league rank5.0012.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.0081.60
possession avg (last 5)63.2054.60
rest days21.0021.91
scorer concentration0.210.20
season ppg1.771.32
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.608.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.2017.20
skill v11.540.68
sot against avg (last 5)2.603.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.504.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.60
squad age26.55—
state index0.73-0.10
sterile dominance v11.550.02
threat rate (last 10)0.250.28
threat rate (last 3)0.180.27
threat rate (last 5)0.180.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.20