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Tenerife 0–3 Levante UD

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Tue, Jan 7, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Orellana

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Levante UD win39%2.45
Draw31%3.14
Tenerife win30%3.29

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife +0.2553%1.85
Levante UD +0.2547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.68
Over43%2.29

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

49'⚽José Luis Morales · Levante UD
56'🟥Luismi Cruz · Tenerife
61'🟨Oriol Rey · Levante UD
71'⚽ (og)Édgar Badía · Levante UD
85'⚽Andrés García · Levante UD

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots17
2On target5
3Corners5
13Fouls2
0Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeLevante UD
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.210.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.110.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.140.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.690.66
cards avg (last 5)2.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz
coach days37.00220.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.003.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.602.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.252.01
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.13
dominance (last 5)0.430.55
elo1394.411553.77
elo momentum (last 5)-38.69-13.35
eye test v1-1.58-0.32
eye trend v1-0.10-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)53.6063.00
form points (last 5)1.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.531.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.700.70
league points12.0035.00
league rank23.007.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet6.001.00
matches since win6.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2082.80
possession avg (last 5)46.8053.60
rest days16.3116.02
scorer concentration0.210.17
season ppg0.601.67
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.401.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.0011.80
skill v1-0.310.73
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.104.10
sot for avg (last 3)1.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)1.403.40
squad age—26.95
state index-0.98-0.07
sterile dominance v10.250.61
threat rate (last 10)0.210.26
threat rate (last 3)0.160.21
threat rate (last 5)0.190.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00