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RC Deportivo La Coruña 0–4 Mirandes

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 22, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Andrés Fuentes

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña win53%1.83
Draw27%3.62
Mirandes win20%5.05

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña −0.555%1.78
Mirandes −0.545%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.69
Over43%2.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'⚽ (pen)Urko Izeta · Mirandes
40'⚽Joel Roca · Mirandes
45'🟨Hugo Rincón · Mirandes
53'🟨Ivan Barbero · RC Deportivo La Coruña
54'🟨Juan Gutiérrez · Mirandes
55'⚽Urko Izeta · Mirandes
63'⚽Urko Izeta · Mirandes
77'🟥Diego Villares · RC Deportivo La Coruña
90'🟨Alex Calvo · Mirandes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
5Shots14
2On target7
5Corners2
10Fouls11
1Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRC Deportivo La CoruñaMirandes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.470.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.590.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.720.72
cards avg (last 5)2.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Abanca-Riazor
2.00
coach days82.00540.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.230.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.40-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.00
corners for avg (last 5)2.802.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.952.60
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.05
dominance (last 5)0.380.41
elo1484.171506.85
elo momentum (last 5)33.5212.60
eye test v10.56-0.69
eye trend v1-0.02-0.24
first sub minute (last 10)62.4056.70
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.791.07
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.710.71
league points25.0036.00
league rank18.005.00
matches since blank11.002.00
matches since clean sheet6.004.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0068.80
possession avg (last 5)48.6044.00
rest days2.993.99
scorer concentration0.220.40
season ppg1.251.71
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.80-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.608.80
skill v10.06-1.17
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.503.70
sot for avg (last 3)6.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.20
squad age—22.40
state index0.28-0.15
sterile dominance v10.47-0.33
threat rate (last 10)0.240.25
threat rate (last 3)0.230.17
threat rate (last 5)0.190.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20