⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Almeria 1–1 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 22, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Germán Cid

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win58%1.64
Draw24%4.06
Cadiz win18%5.49

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria −0.7553%1.83
Cadiz −0.7547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.82
Under47%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

43'⚽Javier Ontiveros · Cadiz
47'🟨Brian Ocampo · Cadiz
55'🟨Javier Ontiveros · Cadiz
60'⚽ (pen)Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria
73'🟨Javier Ontiveros · Cadiz
73'🟥Javier Ontiveros · Cadiz
78'🟨Alejandro Pozo · Almeria
89'🟨Gonzalo Melero · Almeria
89'🟨Carlos Fernández · Cadiz
90'🟨Marko Perović · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
20Shots5
6On target4
6Corners0
16Fouls11
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.490.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.700.54
cards avg (last 5)3.003.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueUD Almería Stadium
coach days204.0021.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.240.09
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.802.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.061.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.11
dominance (last 5)0.530.45
elo1570.061471.66
elo momentum (last 5)37.40-18.34
eye test v10.77-0.26
eye trend v1-0.270.23
first sub minute (last 10)45.4059.70
form points (last 5)13.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.88
h2 goals (last 10)1.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.650.68
league points39.0022.00
league rank2.0019.00
matches since blank16.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2074.00
possession avg (last 5)50.8044.00
rest days3.982.98
scorer concentration0.320.39
season ppg1.861.05
shot diff avg (last 5)2.40-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.4010.40
skill v10.31-0.70
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.603.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.60
squad age23.2928.22
state index0.94-0.53
sterile dominance v10.14-0.42
threat rate (last 10)0.280.21
threat rate (last 3)0.250.30
threat rate (last 5)0.250.24
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.40