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Oviedo 2–3 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Eder Mallo

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win57%1.75
Draw25%3.90
Cordoba win18%5.79

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo −0.7553%1.83
Cordoba −0.7547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.87
Over48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Nikolay Obolskiy · Cordoba
21'⚽José Antonio Martinez Gil · Cordoba
43'🟨Jose Calderon · Cordoba
44'⚽Oier Luengo · Oviedo
45'🟨Aarón Escandell · Oviedo
45'🟨Haissem Hassan · Oviedo
45'🟨Carlos Marín · Cordoba
45'🟨Marvel · Cordoba
45'⚽Théo Zidane · Cordoba
61'⚽Ilyas Chaira · Oviedo
75'🟨Paulino De la Fuente

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score3
15Shots14
5On target8
7Corners2
16Fouls24
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.570.59
cards avg (last 5)3.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
· Oviedo
79'🟨Carlos Pomares · Oviedo
90'🟨Álex Cardero · Oviedo
coach days173.00569.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.602.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.806.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.023.44
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.19
dominance (last 5)0.490.59
elo1554.011380.35
elo momentum (last 5)-2.8631.22
eye test v10.470.13
eye trend v10.39-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)43.8059.50
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.751.16
h2 goals (last 10)1.500.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.820.64
league points35.0024.00
league rank6.0017.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0076.80
possession avg (last 5)52.4052.00
rest days3.793.79
scorer concentration0.310.36
season ppg1.671.14
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.205.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.4014.40
skill v10.580.07
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.305.20
sot for avg (last 3)7.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.60
squad age26.85—
state index0.18-0.35
sterile dominance v10.120.01
threat rate (last 10)0.260.29
threat rate (last 3)0.340.29
threat rate (last 5)0.270.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.20