⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Málaga CF 3–0 Eldense

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Wed, Dec 18, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Rafael Sánchez

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF win42%2.32
Draw33%3.00
Eldense win26%3.91

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF −0.2550%1.94
Eldense −0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under65%1.47
Over35%2.80

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Antonio Cordero · Málaga CF
28'⚽Nélson Monte · Málaga CF
38'🟨Iván Martos · Eldense
39'🟨David Timor · Eldense
42'🟨Iván Martos · Eldense
42'🟥Iván Martos · Eldense
50'🟨Unai Ropero · Eldense
56'🟨Joel Jorquera · Eldense
58'🟨Julen Lobete · Málaga CF
81'🟨Jokin Gabilondo · Málaga CF
90'🟨Víctor Camarasa

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
16Shots15
6On target4
3Corners2
10Fouls20
1Yellow cards7
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMálaga CFEldense
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.130.12
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.200.18
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10—
box share (last 5)0.740.65
cards avg (last 5)1.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio La Rosaleda
· Eldense
90'🟨Ricardo Grigore · Eldense
90'⚽Kevin Villodres · Málaga CF
coach days717.00170.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.03
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.351.25
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.05
dominance (last 5)0.420.56
elo1449.281423.40
elo momentum (last 5)-18.67-6.88
eye test v1-0.92-0.99
eye trend v1-0.39-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)53.5055.50
form points (last 5)3.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.710.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.000.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.25—
keeper form v10.880.67
league points24.0021.00
league rank16.0021.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win6.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6072.20
possession avg (last 5)48.2045.60
rest days3.214.11
scorer concentration0.250.24
season ppg1.261.05
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.802.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.8011.80
skill v10.09-0.76
sot against avg (last 5)6.402.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.10
sot for avg (last 3)1.001.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.402.20
state index-0.63-0.52
sterile dominance v10.13-0.62
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.160.29
threat rate (last 5)0.230.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.20