← Segunda División 2024-25 · Tue, Dec 17, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Pérez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza win | 44% | 40% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Oviedo win | 25% | 30% | 4.18 | value: +25% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Oviedo −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.49 |
| Over | 36% | 2.76 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Adrian Liso · Zaragoza |
| 25' | 🟨 | Keidi Bare · Zaragoza |
| 28' | 🟨 | Malcom Ares · Zaragoza |
| 32' | ⚽ | Malcom Ares · Zaragoza |
| 37' | 🟨 | Alberto del Moral · Oviedo |
| 37' | 🟨 | Lucas Ahijado · Oviedo |
| 48' | 🟨 | Sebas Moyano · Oviedo |
| 50' | ⚽ | Ilyas Chaira · Oviedo |
| 51' | 🟨 | Quentin Braat · Oviedo |
| 61' | 🟨 | Álex Cardero · Oviedo |
| 65' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 15 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 23 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Zaragoza | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio de la Romareda |
| Alemão · Oviedo |
| 76' | 🟨 | Bernardo Vital · Zaragoza |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ilyas Chaira · Oviedo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 16.00 | 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1502.82 | 1561.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.00 | -3.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 43.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| league points | 26.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 3.11 | 3.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.33 | 28.75 |
| state index | -0.50 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |