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Castellon 4–1 Cartagena

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 14, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Germán Cid

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Castellon win69%1.40
Draw20%5.17
Cartagena win12%9.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cartagena −1.552%1.88
Castellon −1.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.63
Under41%2.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Kenneth Obinna Mamah · Castellon
14'⚽Israel Suero · Castellon
24'🟨Alberto Jiménez · Castellon
27'🟨Dani Escriche · Cartagena
37'🟨Mini · Cartagena
45'🟨Kiko Olivas · Cartagena
46'🟨Pedro Alcala · Cartagena
50'⚽Pere Marco · Castellon
64'⚽Pocho Román · Cartagena
70'⚽Brian Cipenga · Castellon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
24Shots9
13On target7
5Corners1
10Fouls11
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCastellonCartagena
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.54
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.42
box share (last 5)0.540.65
cards avg (last 5)1.801.00
coach days562.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio SkyFi Castalia
104.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.07
corner diff avg (last 5)2.00-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.403.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.702.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.04
dominance (last 5)0.540.35
elo1447.611396.52
elo momentum (last 5)0.3223.67
eye test v10.68-0.45
eye trend v1-0.110.39
first sub minute (last 10)56.3062.40
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
keeper form v10.740.71
league points26.0016.00
league rank11.0021.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4072.00
possession avg (last 5)63.0038.00
rest days5.914.82
scorer concentration0.200.22
season ppg1.370.84
shot diff avg (last 5)3.00-8.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.408.60
skill v11.20-1.26
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.003.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.003.60
state index-0.15-0.42
sterile dominance v11.03-0.69
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.200.20
threat rate (last 5)0.230.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.00