⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Castellon 2–0 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 1, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver De La Fuente

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Castellon win54%1.77
Draw25%3.81
Málaga CF win21%4.78

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF −0.7551%1.91
Castellon −0.7549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.69
Under43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'⚽Thomas Van den Belt · Castellon
32'🟨Álex Pastor · Málaga CF
59'🟨Nélson Monte · Málaga CF
72'⚽David Flakus Bosilj · Castellon
74'🟨Dioni · Málaga CF
85'🟨Daniel Villahermosa · Castellon
89'🟨Raúl Sánchez · Castellon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots7
8On target2
3Corners3
11Fouls20
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCastellonMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.33
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.05
box share (last 5)0.720.73
cards avg (last 5)2.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio SkyFi Castalia
coach days549.00700.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.06
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.803.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.162.10
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.03
dominance (last 5)0.520.47
elo1431.431460.87
elo momentum (last 5)-2.8812.42
eye test v10.850.15
eye trend v10.210.16
first sub minute (last 10)60.1050.20
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.850.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.20
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.20
keeper form v10.720.84
league points22.0022.00
league rank13.0014.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win4.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8080.80
possession avg (last 5)59.6049.00
rest days3.793.79
scorer concentration0.220.25
season ppg1.291.38
shot diff avg (last 5)1.40-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.2014.20
skill v10.380.25
sot against avg (last 5)5.605.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.503.90
sot for avg (last 3)7.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.404.40
state index-0.42-0.22
sterile dominance v10.31-0.11
threat rate (last 10)0.260.23
threat rate (last 3)0.250.29
threat rate (last 5)0.260.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80