← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 1, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver De La Fuente
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Castellon win | 54% | 1.77 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.81 |
| Málaga CF win | 21% | 4.78 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Castellon −0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.69 |
| Under | 43% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Thomas Van den Belt · Castellon |
| 32' | 🟨 | Álex Pastor · Málaga CF |
| 59' | 🟨 | Nélson Monte · Málaga CF |
| 72' | ⚽ | David Flakus Bosilj · Castellon |
| 74' | 🟨 | Dioni · Málaga CF |
| 85' | 🟨 | Daniel Villahermosa · Castellon |
| 89' | 🟨 | Raúl Sánchez · Castellon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Castellon | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio SkyFi Castalia |
| coach days | 549.00 | 700.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1431.43 | 1460.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.88 | 12.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.85 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.84 |
| league points | 22.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |