⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Tenerife 1–1 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 30, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Palencia

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF win37%2.60
Draw32%2.92
Tenerife win30%3.36

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife +0.2554%1.80
Elche CF +0.2546%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under67%1.42
Over33%2.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Aarón Martín · Tenerife
23'🟨Nicolás Fernández · Elche CF
26'🟨Nicolás Fernández · Elche CF
26'🟥Nicolás Fernández · Elche CF
30'⚽Youssouf Diarra · Tenerife
35'🟨Aleix Febas · Elche CF
60'🟨Maikel Mesa · Tenerife
62'🟨Waldo Rubio Marin · Tenerife
69'🟨Jeremy Mellot · Tenerife
74'🟨Cristian Salvador · Elche CF
83'🟨Jeremy Mellot

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots7
2On target2
2Corners6
22Fouls22
5Yellow cards6
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.710.57
cards avg (last 5)2.202.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz
· Tenerife
83'🟥Jeremy Mellot · Tenerife
86'🟨Nicolás Castro · Elche CF
90'🟨Raúl Guti · Elche CF
90'⚽Sory Kaba · Elche CF
coach days90.00152.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.004.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.602.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.606.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.262.42
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.05
dominance (last 5)0.550.66
elo1425.371520.12
elo momentum (last 5)-5.6236.61
eye test v1-0.581.28
eye trend v1-0.160.51
first sub minute (last 10)50.8051.10
form points (last 5)5.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
keeper form v10.610.77
league points11.0028.00
league rank22.006.00
matches since blank4.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4086.20
possession avg (last 5)47.0053.80
rest days6.296.00
scorer concentration0.150.25
season ppg0.691.65
shot diff avg (last 5)1.009.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.8019.00
skill v1-0.281.05
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.205.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.337.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.206.60
squad age—28.26
state index-0.260.72
sterile dominance v10.02-0.08
threat rate (last 10)0.250.27
threat rate (last 3)0.190.33
threat rate (last 5)0.220.33
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.60