← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 30, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Salvador Lax
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadiz win | 42% | 36% | 2.47 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 29% | 37% | 3.60 | value: +34% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Cadiz −0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.77 |
| Over | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | David Mella · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 35' | ⚽ (og) | Bojan Kovačević · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 40' | ⚽ | Álex Fernández · Cadiz |
| 53' | 🟨 | Víctor Chust · Cadiz |
| 57' | ⚽ | Lucas Pérez · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 59' | 🟨 | Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz |
| 63' | 🟨 | Helton Leite · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 66' | 🟨 | Álex Fernández · Cadiz |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Álex Fernández · Cadiz |
| 72' | 🟨 | Rubén Alcaraz · Cadiz |
| 78' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cadiz | RC Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.54 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla |
| 🟨 |
| David Mella · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 78' | 🟥 | David Mella · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 81' | ⚽ | Lucas Pérez · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 82' | 🟨 | Cristian Glauder · Cadiz |
| 84' | ⚽ | Lucas Pérez · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Pérez · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 152.00 | 60.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 4.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1529.50 | 1478.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.63 | 24.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| league points | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 6.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 28.41 | 28.95 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |