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Cadiz 2–4 RC Deportivo La Coruña

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 30, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Salvador Lax

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win42%2.47
Draw29%3.40
RC Deportivo La Coruña win29%3.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña −0.2553%1.83
Cadiz −0.2547%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.77
Over45%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨David Mella · RC Deportivo La Coruña
35'⚽ (og)Bojan Kovačević · RC Deportivo La Coruña
40'⚽Álex Fernández · Cadiz
53'🟨Víctor Chust · Cadiz
57'⚽Lucas Pérez · RC Deportivo La Coruña
59'🟨Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz
63'🟨Helton Leite · RC Deportivo La Coruña
66'🟨Álex Fernández · Cadiz
66'⚽ (pen)Álex Fernández · Cadiz
72'🟨Rubén Alcaraz · Cadiz
78'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots13
5On target6
5Corners3
21Fouls9
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizRC Deportivo La Coruña
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.530.60
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.54
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.640.70
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Mirandilla
David Mella · RC Deportivo La Coruña
78'🟥David Mella · RC Deportivo La Coruña
81'⚽Lucas Pérez · RC Deportivo La Coruña
82'🟨Cristian Glauder · Cadiz
84'⚽Lucas Pérez · RC Deportivo La Coruña
90'🟨Lucas Pérez · RC Deportivo La Coruña
0.80
coach days152.0060.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-4.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.407.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.164.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.08
dominance (last 5)0.440.41
elo1492.761451.27
elo momentum (last 5)-11.7124.38
eye test v1-0.760.65
eye trend v1-0.03-0.33
first sub minute (last 10)56.2062.40
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.40
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.10
keeper form v10.690.76
league points18.0018.00
league rank17.0018.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2082.00
possession avg (last 5)51.0051.40
rest days7.096.09
scorer concentration0.400.32
season ppg1.061.06
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.40-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.6011.40
skill v1-0.140.51
sot against avg (last 5)2.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.005.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.805.40
squad age28.22—
state index-0.27-0.12
sterile dominance v10.750.56
threat rate (last 10)0.220.27
threat rate (last 3)0.140.16
threat rate (last 5)0.150.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40