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Elche CF 4–0 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 24, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Jon González

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF win42%2.34
Draw31%3.10
Oviedo win27%3.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo −0.2551%1.93
Elche CF −0.2549%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.51
Over37%2.69

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Jaime Vázquez · Oviedo
5'⚽ (pen)Nicolás Fernández · Elche CF
31'🟨Yago Santiago · Elche CF
45'⚽Agustín Álvarez · Elche CF
51'🟨Agustín Álvarez · Elche CF
53'⚽Nicolás Fernández · Elche CF
58'🟨Aleix Febas · Elche CF
82'🟨Ilyas Chaira · Oviedo
83'⚽Nicolás Castro · Elche CF
90'🟨Aarón Escandell · Oviedo
90'🟨Oier Luengo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
23Shots4
10On target1
6Corners0
12Fouls11
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricElche CFOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10—
box share (last 5)0.570.70
cards avg (last 5)1.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Manuel Martínez Valero
· Oviedo
coach days146.00146.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.16
corner diff avg (last 5)3.400.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.404.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.411.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.18
dominance (last 5)0.640.58
elo1501.621556.87
elo momentum (last 5)17.6912.96
eye test v10.760.50
eye trend v10.130.09
first sub minute (last 10)55.0047.80
form points (last 5)8.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.49
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.35—
keeper form v10.760.68
league points25.0026.00
league rank10.004.00
matches since blank4.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.005.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.8081.00
possession avg (last 5)59.0050.60
rest days8.107.20
scorer concentration0.230.29
season ppg1.561.63
shot diff avg (last 5)7.404.20
shots for avg (last 5)17.6013.20
skill v11.440.37
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.105.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.405.40
squad age28.2628.66
state index0.390.29
sterile dominance v10.590.20
threat rate (last 10)0.250.28
threat rate (last 3)0.300.29
threat rate (last 5)0.280.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80