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Cordoba 2–2 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Álvaro Moreno

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba win42%2.26
Draw29%3.25
Zaragoza win28%3.58

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba −0.2550%1.93
Zaragoza −0.2550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.79
Over46%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Keidi Bare · Zaragoza
14'🟨Adrián Lapeña · Cordoba
16'⚽Francho Serrano · Zaragoza
30'⚽Théo Zidane · Cordoba
47'🟨Ager Aketxe · Zaragoza
56'⚽Marcos Luna · Zaragoza
58'⚽Jacobo · Cordoba
64'🟨Alex Sala · Cordoba
67'🟨Antonio Casas · Cordoba
69'🟨Dani Tasende · Zaragoza
72'🟨Isma Ruiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
21Shots7
8On target4
10Corners2
18Fouls19
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.600.58
cards avg (last 5)4.002.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
· Cordoba
72'🟨Samed Baždar · Zaragoza
90'🟨Jacobo · Cordoba
coach days541.00267.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.602.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.503.11
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.08
dominance (last 5)0.630.50
elo1361.931495.73
elo momentum (last 5)13.614.79
eye test v10.690.37
eye trend v10.290.04
first sub minute (last 10)56.9056.10
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.700.70
league points16.0024.00
league rank19.0010.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2076.20
possession avg (last 5)55.2049.40
rest days6.095.90
scorer concentration0.430.26
season ppg1.141.50
shot diff avg (last 5)7.000.20
shots for avg (last 5)18.0014.00
skill v10.41-0.15
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.805.50
sot for avg (last 3)6.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.605.20
state index-0.06-0.04
sterile dominance v1-0.21-0.19
threat rate (last 10)0.290.27
threat rate (last 3)0.340.29
threat rate (last 5)0.310.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.40