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Almeria 2–1 RC Deportivo La Coruña

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 17, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Sergiu Muresan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win50%1.95
RC Deportivo La Coruña win25%4.12
Draw25%3.85

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria −0.552%1.88
RC Deportivo La Coruña −0.548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.65
Under42%2.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'⚽Edgar González · Almeria
35'⚽Pablo Vázquez · RC Deportivo La Coruña
45'⚽Léo Baptistão · Almeria
72'🟨Dani Barcia · RC Deportivo La Coruña

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
16Shots7
6On target5
7Corners4
11Fouls11
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaRC Deportivo La Coruña
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.560.75
cards avg (last 5)4.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueUD Almería Stadium
1.80
coach days169.0047.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.602.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.208.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.874.25
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.11
dominance (last 5)0.490.57
elo1518.281457.30
elo momentum (last 5)30.2915.66
eye test v10.750.73
eye trend v10.130.06
first sub minute (last 10)58.8061.20
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.96
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
keeper form v10.650.73
league points20.0016.00
league rank13.0018.00
matches since blank9.005.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.2084.00
possession avg (last 5)51.2056.20
rest days8.925.92
scorer concentration0.300.35
season ppg1.431.14
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.204.40
shots for avg (last 5)16.6017.20
skill v10.611.01
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.005.30
sot for avg (last 3)6.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.405.60
squad age23.29—
state index0.340.15
sterile dominance v1-0.030.28
threat rate (last 10)0.300.30
threat rate (last 3)0.330.27
threat rate (last 5)0.290.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40