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Oviedo 3–1 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 17, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Germán Cid

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win55%1.76
Draw29%3.40
Tenerife win17%6.11

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife −0.7552%1.87
Oviedo −0.7548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under68%1.42
Over32%2.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Kwasi Sibo · Oviedo
16'⚽Haissem Hassan · Oviedo
19'🟨Fernando Medrano · Tenerife
34'🟨Lucas Ahijado · Oviedo
68'⚽Jaime Seoane · Oviedo
70'🟨Jeremy Mellot · Tenerife
80'🟨Jaime Vázquez · Oviedo
81'⚽José León · Tenerife
86'🟨Oier Luengo · Oviedo
89'🟨Dani Calvo · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
17Shots13
8On target3
4Corners4
24Fouls12
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.26
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.10
box share (last 5)0.690.62
cards avg (last 5)2.003.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
coach days139.0077.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-3.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.206.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.802.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.891.57
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.10
dominance (last 5)0.590.50
elo1548.581441.39
elo momentum (last 5)3.55-13.25
eye test v10.52-0.98
eye trend v1-0.310.40
first sub minute (last 10)51.6054.10
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.430.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.25
keeper form v10.700.72
league points23.0011.00
league rank9.0022.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2073.00
possession avg (last 5)51.0039.20
rest days6.9113.91
scorer concentration0.330.18
season ppg1.530.79
shot diff avg (last 5)5.00-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.809.40
skill v10.42-1.10
sot against avg (last 5)3.205.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.003.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.402.60
squad age27.70—
state index0.46-0.49
sterile dominance v10.15-0.64
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.210.24
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.40