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Cadiz 2–0 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 17, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Andrés Fuentes

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win45%2.19
Draw28%3.40
Cordoba win26%3.70

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz −0.2552%1.88
Cordoba −0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.83
Over47%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨José Antonio Caro · Cadiz
5'🟨Matos · Cadiz
38'⚽Javier Ontiveros · Cadiz
43'🟨Carlos Albarrán · Cordoba
45'🟨Théo Zidane · Cordoba
45'🟨Cristian Carracedo · Cordoba
45'⚽Roger Martí · Cadiz
52'🟨Carlos Fernández · Cadiz
57'🟨Javier Ontiveros · Cadiz
57'🟨Jose Calderon · Cordoba
80'🟨Alex Sala

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
12Shots20
5On target2
5Corners9
16Fouls17
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.690.57
cards avg (last 5)2.003.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Mirandilla
· Cordoba
coach days139.00535.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.072.36
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.10
dominance (last 5)0.530.57
elo1481.871370.06
elo momentum (last 5)-14.8016.85
eye test v1-0.740.52
eye trend v1-0.560.35
first sub minute (last 10)57.6057.60
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v10.630.72
league points14.0016.00
league rank20.0016.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0077.00
possession avg (last 5)52.6051.00
rest days8.007.09
scorer concentration0.380.43
season ppg0.931.23
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.203.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.4015.60
skill v10.040.03
sot against avg (last 5)2.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.105.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.006.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.805.60
squad age28.22—
state index-0.45-0.31
sterile dominance v10.54-0.19
threat rate (last 10)0.240.28
threat rate (last 3)0.130.30
threat rate (last 5)0.190.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.20