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Albacete 2–2 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 10, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Sergiu Muresan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete win37%2.68
Oviedo win32%3.07
Draw30%3.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete +053%1.83
Oviedo +047%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.66
Over42%2.31

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Rai Marchán · Albacete
17'🟨Juanma García · Albacete
30'⚽Alemão · Oviedo
45'⚽ (pen)Alberto Quiles · Albacete
58'⚽Alemão · Oviedo
62'⚽Javier Rueda · Albacete
67'🟨Ilyas Chaira · Oviedo
86'🟨Alemão · Oviedo
89'🟨Santiago Colombatto · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
6Shots10
3On target5
2Corners2
7Fouls14
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.39
box share (last 5)0.560.72
cards avg (last 5)0.401.80
coach days254.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Carlos Belmonte
132.00
congestion 21d5.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.11
corner diff avg (last 5)3.001.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.403.80
corners for avg (last 5)7.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.841.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.15
dominance (last 5)0.500.61
elo1467.441549.21
elo momentum (last 5)5.1211.11
eye test v10.990.88
eye trend v10.080.02
first sub minute (last 10)55.4049.80
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.201.43
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.730.71
league points17.0022.00
league rank15.009.00
matches since blank9.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.003.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2081.60
possession avg (last 5)44.6052.20
rest days8.007.19
scorer concentration0.240.25
season ppg1.211.57
shot diff avg (last 5)0.807.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.8016.60
skill v1-0.270.53
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.904.80
sot for avg (last 3)7.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.606.20
squad age—28.01
state index-0.370.24
sterile dominance v1-0.69-0.05
threat rate (last 10)0.320.27
threat rate (last 3)0.320.24
threat rate (last 5)0.310.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.60