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Cordoba 2–2 Castellon

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 10, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Palencia

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba win43%2.23
Castellon win30%3.31
Draw27%3.70

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba −0.2551%1.93
Castellon −0.2549%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.75
Under45%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Israel Suero · Castellon
20'🟨Adrián Lapeña · Cordoba
28'🟨Carlos Isaac · Cordoba
29'🟨Thomas Van den Belt · Castellon
45'⚽Álex Calatrava · Castellon
47'⚽Théo Zidane · Cordoba
59'🟨Jetro Willems · Castellon
64'🟨Ander Yoldi · Cordoba
71'🟨Álex Calatrava · Castellon
77'⚽Antonio Casas · Cordoba
80'🟨Alberto Jiménez

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
18Shots10
7On target2
8Corners6
20Fouls22
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaCastellon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.00—
box share (last 5)0.540.62
cards avg (last 5)3.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
· Castellon
90'🟨Jose Calderon · Cordoba
coach days528.00528.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.000.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.604.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.182.21
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.12
dominance (last 5)0.510.49
elo1369.531447.81
elo momentum (last 5)20.988.92
eye test v10.19-0.21
eye trend v10.34-0.30
first sub minute (last 10)58.2060.80
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.37
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.15—
keeper form v10.690.72
league points15.0019.00
league rank16.0012.00
matches since blank1.007.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8075.80
possession avg (last 5)51.0054.00
rest days14.8514.85
scorer concentration0.420.21
season ppg1.251.46
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.2012.60
skill v10.200.11
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.605.30
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.00
state index0.03-0.04
sterile dominance v10.100.31
threat rate (last 10)0.260.25
threat rate (last 3)0.310.23
threat rate (last 5)0.250.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.80