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Huesca 1–1 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 9, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Jon González

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Draw35%3.00
Huesca win34%3.00
Zaragoza win32%3.37

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca +055%1.76
Zaragoza +045%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under69%1.41
Over31%3.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'⚽Gerard Valentín · Huesca
52'🟨Miguel Loureiro · Huesca
55'🟨Javier Hernández · Huesca
63'🟨Rubén Pulido · Huesca
64'⚽Ivan Azón · Zaragoza
72'🟨Ivan Calero · Zaragoza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots17
4On target4
8Corners3
14Fouls7
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.740.67
cards avg (last 5)2.202.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Alcoraz
coach days405.00253.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.210.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.600.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.403.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.403.12
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.14
dominance (last 5)0.420.48
elo1492.901496.74
elo momentum (last 5)-22.154.11
eye test v1-0.380.51
eye trend v10.13-0.21
first sub minute (last 10)53.8056.10
form points (last 5)3.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.421.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.700.72
league points18.0022.00
league rank13.006.00
matches since blank3.006.00
matches since clean sheet3.0010.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6077.00
possession avg (last 5)46.0050.80
rest days13.007.00
scorer concentration0.150.23
season ppg1.381.57
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.20-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.8013.00
skill v1-0.330.02
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.005.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.205.60
state index-0.58-0.12
sterile dominance v1-0.02-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.230.28
threat rate (last 3)0.260.24
threat rate (last 5)0.220.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20