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Granada 3–2 Eldense

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 9, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel González

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win53%1.83
Draw26%3.70
Eldense win21%4.62

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eldense −0.7554%1.81
Granada −0.7546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.85
Over47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽ (pen)Myrto Uzuni · Granada
45'⚽Lucas Boyé · Granada
49'⚽Ivan Chapela · Eldense
52'🟨Giorgi Tsitaishvili · Granada
53'⚽Juanto Ortuño · Eldense
79'🟨Sergio Rodelas · Granada
80'🟨Marc Mateu · Eldense
81'🟨Juanma Lendínez · Granada
90'🟨Myrto Uzuni · Granada
90'🟨Joel Jorquera · Eldense
90'🟨Dario Đumić

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
13Shots10
4On target6
5Corners5
16Fouls5
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGranadaEldense
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.05—
box share (last 5)0.590.68
cards avg (last 5)3.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Los Cármenes
· Eldense
90'🟨David Timor · Eldense
90'⚽Myrto Uzuni · Granada
coach days69.00131.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.05—
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.971.97
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.16
dominance (last 5)0.610.43
elo1497.211421.91
elo momentum (last 5)8.37-44.05
eye test v10.72-0.17
eye trend v10.04-0.34
first sub minute (last 10)53.5054.90
form points (last 5)9.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.74
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.20—
keeper form v10.690.75
league points19.0013.00
league rank10.0020.00
matches since blank13.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.008.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8075.80
possession avg (last 5)56.0048.60
rest days7.0014.04
scorer concentration0.260.17
season ppg1.461.00
shot diff avg (last 5)6.00-4.00
shots for avg (last 5)16.2012.40
skill v10.61-0.23
sot against avg (last 5)4.006.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.804.00
squad age26.06—
state index0.21-1.02
sterile dominance v10.23-0.11
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.280.22
threat rate (last 5)0.270.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80