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Elche CF 1–2 Almeria

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Fri, Nov 8, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Pérez

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF win47%2.04
Draw27%3.50
Almeria win26%3.98

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria −0.553%1.87
Elche CF −0.547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.93
Over49%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Jose Salinas · Elche CF
14'🟨Marc Pubill · Almeria
34'🟨Álex Centelles · Almeria
37'⚽Dion Lopy · Almeria
38'🟨Dion Lopy · Almeria
42'🟨Iddrisu Baba · Almeria
54'⚽Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria
60'🟨Nicolás Fernández · Elche CF
66'🟨Mario Gaspar · Elche CF
74'🟨Arnau Puigmal · Almeria
79'🟨Fernando Martínez

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
21Shots12
4On target7
4Corners1
24Fouls19
3Yellow cards7
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricElche CFAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.530.54
cards avg (last 5)0.404.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Manuel Martínez Valero
· Almeria
90'🟨Raúl Guti · Elche CF
90'🟨Rachad Dhimi · Almeria
coach days130.00160.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d5.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.14
corner diff avg (last 5)2.80-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.405.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.203.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.503.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.020.10
dominance (last 5)0.640.52
elo1509.961506.48
elo momentum (last 5)44.8031.95
eye test v1-0.010.70
eye trend v10.07-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)55.6059.90
form points (last 5)13.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.10
keeper form v10.750.62
league points24.0017.00
league rank3.0015.00
matches since blank2.008.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.6081.20
possession avg (last 5)58.6050.60
rest days6.2712.08
scorer concentration0.270.28
season ppg1.711.31
shot diff avg (last 5)6.802.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.4018.20
skill v11.310.39
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.405.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.805.20
squad age26.4123.29
state index0.740.21
sterile dominance v10.71-0.41
threat rate (last 10)0.230.31
threat rate (last 3)0.280.33
threat rate (last 5)0.260.33
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.80