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Zaragoza 2–1 Granada

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 2, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Saúl Ais

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win42%2.34
Draw30%3.20
Granada win28%3.51

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada −0.2551%1.92
Zaragoza −0.2549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.67
Over42%2.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Ivan Azón · Zaragoza
7'🟨Ignasi Miquel · Granada
24'🟨Lluis Lopez · Zaragoza
57'🟨Bernardo Vital · Zaragoza
63'⚽Ivan Azón · Zaragoza
71'🟨Rubén Sánchez · Granada
84'⚽Myrto Uzuni · Granada
85'🟥Kamil Jóźwiak · Granada
90'🟨Rubén Sánchez · Granada
90'🟥Rubén Sánchez · Granada

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots16
6On target3
1Corners4
17Fouls14
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaGranada
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.660.59
cards avg (last 5)2.803.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de la Romareda
coach days246.0062.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.16
corner diff avg (last 5)3.20-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)2.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.003.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.752.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.07
dominance (last 5)0.500.56
elo1487.941506.01
elo momentum (last 5)-15.2928.75
eye test v10.670.40
eye trend v1-0.290.56
first sub minute (last 10)53.5054.00
form points (last 5)6.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.271.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.720.69
league points19.0019.00
league rank8.007.00
matches since blank5.0012.00
matches since clean sheet9.002.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6078.20
possession avg (last 5)54.6053.60
rest days7.045.90
scorer concentration0.250.22
season ppg1.461.58
shot diff avg (last 5)0.204.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.2014.00
skill v10.320.31
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.004.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.677.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.005.40
squad age—26.06
state index-0.320.47
sterile dominance v10.180.27
threat rate (last 10)0.270.23
threat rate (last 3)0.230.28
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.20