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Eibar 0–2 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 2, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Rafael Sánchez

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eibar win34%2.85
Elche CF win33%2.96
Draw32%3.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eibar +051%1.92
Elche CF +049%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.56
Over38%2.55

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Peru Nolaskoain Esnal · Eibar
41'⚽Agustín Álvarez · Elche CF
45'⚽Mourad El Ghezouani · Elche CF
58'🟨José Corpas · Eibar
86'🟨Sergio Álvarez · Eibar

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
12Shots15
6On target3
3Corners6
20Fouls9
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEibarElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.510.50
cards avg (last 5)3.000.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Ipurúa
coach days490.00124.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.04
corner diff avg (last 5)0.402.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.003.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.482.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.05
dominance (last 5)0.530.65
elo1522.821491.09
elo momentum (last 5)-48.3723.43
eye test v10.250.08
eye trend v1-0.130.08
first sub minute (last 10)51.1055.20
form points (last 5)6.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.680.68
league points18.0021.00
league rank11.004.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4087.40
possession avg (last 5)55.6064.20
rest days6.005.91
scorer concentration0.300.22
season ppg1.381.62
shot diff avg (last 5)2.006.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.0014.40
skill v10.361.83
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.00
squad age26.6427.35
state index-0.340.22
sterile dominance v10.491.39
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.190.26
threat rate (last 5)0.220.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80