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Huesca 2–2 Almeria

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 27, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Dámaso Arcediano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win38%2.56
Draw32%3.03
Huesca win30%3.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca +0.2555%1.78
Almeria +0.2545%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.66
Over42%2.32

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Toni Abad · Huesca
9'⚽Iker Unzueta Arregui · Huesca
36'🟥Diego González · Huesca
43'🟨Bruno Langa · Almeria
45'🟨Javier Hernández · Huesca
55'🟨Álex Centelles · Almeria
56'⚽ (pen)Ignasi Vilarrasa · Huesca
82'⚽Sergio Arribas · Almeria
85'⚽Álex Centelles · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots25
3On target5
1Corners7
15Fouls12
2Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.680.58
cards avg (last 5)2.604.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Alcoraz
coach days392.00148.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.80-4.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.806.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.002.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.293.67
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.11
dominance (last 5)0.420.49
elo1494.311505.07
elo momentum (last 5)-7.3721.47
eye test v1-0.650.57
eye trend v1-0.230.18
first sub minute (last 10)54.7061.50
form points (last 5)5.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.510.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.720.67
league points17.0016.00
league rank13.0014.00
matches since blank2.007.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0080.80
possession avg (last 5)53.2046.00
rest days2.943.02
scorer concentration0.170.31
season ppg1.421.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.00-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)8.2016.60
skill v10.540.06
sot against avg (last 5)3.406.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.805.00
squad age—23.29
state index-0.330.12
sterile dominance v11.04-0.66
threat rate (last 10)0.210.32
threat rate (last 3)0.170.30
threat rate (last 5)0.160.32
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20