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Zaragoza 1–2 Castellon

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Orellana

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win44%2.19
Castellon win28%3.46
Draw28%3.49

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza −0.2552%1.89
Castellon −0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.79
Under46%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Alberto Jiménez · Castellon
4'🟨Óscar Gil · Castellon
8'⚽Adrian Liso · Zaragoza
26'🟨Ivan Azón · Zaragoza
40'🟨Alberto Jiménez · Castellon
45'🟨Jetro Willems · Castellon
53'🟨Enrique Clemente · Zaragoza
71'🟨Lluis Lopez · Zaragoza
76'⚽Israel Suero · Castellon
85'🟨Israel Suero · Castellon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
10Shots13
4On target4
2Corners5
21Fouls24
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaCastellon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.05—
box share (last 5)0.660.61
cards avg (last 5)2.201.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de la Romareda
coach days239.00513.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.10—
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.15
corner diff avg (last 5)3.80-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)2.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.422.25
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.12
dominance (last 5)0.460.49
elo1501.451434.31
elo momentum (last 5)-20.978.22
eye test v10.510.05
eye trend v10.04-0.58
first sub minute (last 10)54.1063.10
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.37
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.25—
keeper form v10.760.72
league points19.0016.00
league rank5.0012.00
matches since blank4.006.00
matches since clean sheet8.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.4074.20
possession avg (last 5)54.2052.40
rest days2.983.90
scorer concentration0.260.24
season ppg1.581.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.6013.80
skill v10.55-0.13
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.305.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.604.60
state index-0.32-0.23
sterile dominance v10.37-0.08
threat rate (last 10)0.270.26
threat rate (last 3)0.250.23
threat rate (last 5)0.240.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.80