⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Tenerife 0–0 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Thu, Oct 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Saúl Ais

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win46%2.12
Draw31%3.10
Málaga CF win23%4.37

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF −0.554%1.80
Tenerife −0.546%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under66%1.47
Over34%2.84

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Sergio González · Tenerife
29'🟨Fernando Medrano · Tenerife
34'🟨Enric Gallego · Tenerife
54'🟨Josep Gayá · Tenerife
58'🟨Jeremy Mellot · Tenerife
60'🟨Carlos Puga · Málaga CF
81'🟨Manu Molina · Málaga CF
90'🟨Victor Garcia Marin · Málaga CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots5
4On target1
5Corners4
22Fouls14
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.170.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.550.58
cards avg (last 5)2.202.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz
coach days53.00662.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.20-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.372.30
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.10
dominance (last 5)0.510.40
elo1430.991447.19
elo momentum (last 5)-20.88-12.16
eye test v1-0.57-0.13
eye trend v1-0.100.62
first sub minute (last 10)47.4051.00
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.700.78
league points6.0013.00
league rank23.0016.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4081.00
possession avg (last 5)45.4051.80
rest days5.105.20
scorer concentration0.220.38
season ppg0.551.30
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.40-5.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.8011.20
skill v1-0.480.45
sot against avg (last 5)7.006.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.20
state index-0.61-0.69
sterile dominance v1-0.540.52
threat rate (last 10)0.240.20
threat rate (last 3)0.290.24
threat rate (last 5)0.280.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00