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Almeria 3–1 Albacete

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Thu, Oct 24, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Rubén Ávalos

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win58%1.73
Draw24%4.35
Albacete win19%5.62

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete −151%1.92
Almeria −149%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.63
Under40%2.39

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Léo Baptistão · Almeria
26'⚽Rai Marchán · Albacete
45'🟨Dion Lopy · Almeria
49'⚽Léo Baptistão · Almeria
53'🟨Gonzalo Melero · Almeria
55'🟨Chumi · Almeria
57'⚽Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria
61'🟨Álex Centelles · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
25Shots15
8On target7
2Corners5
21Fouls10
4Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaAlbacete
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.00—
box share (last 5)0.590.54
cards avg (last 5)4.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueUD Almería Stadium
coach days145.00237.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.05—
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.400.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.005.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.633.13
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.15
dominance (last 5)0.490.56
elo1493.391475.20
elo momentum (last 5)10.937.24
eye test v10.311.02
eye trend v10.100.09
first sub minute (last 10)61.5052.90
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.711.18
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.15—
keeper form v10.630.78
league points13.0014.00
league rank16.0013.00
matches since blank6.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2076.60
possession avg (last 5)49.0044.00
rest days4.022.94
scorer concentration0.310.25
season ppg1.181.40
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.205.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.2016.80
skill v10.20-0.46
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.606.40
squad age23.29—
state index-0.070.04
sterile dominance v1-0.14-1.16
threat rate (last 10)0.300.31
threat rate (last 3)0.300.32
threat rate (last 5)0.270.35
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.40