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Cordoba 2–1 Cartagena

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Fri, Oct 18, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Pérez

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba win63%1.52
Draw24%4.11
Cartagena win13%7.35

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba −152%1.89
Cartagena −148%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.90
Over48%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨José Antonio Martinez Gil · Cordoba
21'🟨Alfredo Ortuño · Cartagena
51'🟨Alex Sala · Cordoba
54'🟨Andrija Vukčević · Cartagena
60'⚽Antonio Casas · Cordoba
66'⚽Carlos Albarrán · Cordoba
71'🟨Xavi Sintes · Cordoba
83'🟨Isma Ruiz · Cordoba
88'🟨Dani Escriche · Cartagena
89'⚽Cedric Teguia · Cartagena

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
21Shots6
7On target3
7Corners2
14Fouls11
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaCartagena
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.00—
box share (last 5)0.510.54
cards avg (last 5)2.203.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
coach days505.0047.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.06
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.013.18
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.12
dominance (last 5)0.510.37
elo1348.311419.34
elo momentum (last 5)26.75-24.91
eye test v1-0.10-0.94
eye trend v1-0.200.10
first sub minute (last 10)60.9054.70
form points (last 5)7.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.050.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.70—
ht lead rate (last 20)0.10—
keeper form v10.65—
league points9.006.00
league rank19.0022.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.0012.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0074.60
possession avg (last 5)53.0040.80
rest days5.086.18
scorer concentration0.330.20
season ppg1.000.67
shot diff avg (last 5)1.00-6.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.807.40
skill v10.16-0.84
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.102.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.002.40
state index-0.30-0.77
sterile dominance v10.06-0.08
threat rate (last 10)0.250.20
threat rate (last 3)0.230.17
threat rate (last 5)0.260.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20