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Huesca 2–2 Albacete

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 13, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Germán Cid

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win40%2.45
Draw31%3.00
Albacete win28%3.63

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete −0.2551%1.92
Huesca −0.2549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.63
Over41%2.39

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Riki Rodríguez · Albacete
28'🟨Lalo Aguilar · Albacete
29'⚽Oscar Sielva · Huesca
36'🟨Miguel Loureiro · Huesca
37'🟨Gerard Valentín · Huesca
38'⚽ (pen)Higinio Marín · Albacete
45'⚽Higinio Marín · Albacete
69'🟨Javier Rueda · Albacete
77'🟨Oscar Sielva · Huesca
80'⚽Sergi Enrich · Huesca
81'🟨Raúl Lizoain

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
9Shots5
2On target2
6Corners5
14Fouls14
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaAlbacete
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.520.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.00—
box share (last 5)0.660.70
cards avg (last 5)4.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Alcoraz
· Albacete
85'🟨Álvaro Rodriguez · Albacete
coach days378.00226.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.801.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)0.923.14
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.14
dominance (last 5)0.400.53
elo1515.051459.10
elo momentum (last 5)-12.32-31.79
eye test v1-0.690.54
eye trend v10.130.67
first sub minute (last 10)57.5054.40
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.511.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.70—
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.30—
league points15.0010.00
league rank5.0015.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet7.006.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6078.20
possession avg (last 5)43.0049.00
rest days8.736.71
scorer concentration0.200.20
season ppg1.881.25
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.403.00
shots for avg (last 5)8.0017.00
skill v1-0.520.01
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.304.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.677.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.805.20
state index-0.04-0.47
sterile dominance v1-0.02-0.64
threat rate (last 10)0.240.29
threat rate (last 3)0.190.40
threat rate (last 5)0.200.33
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40