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Tenerife 2–3 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Fri, Oct 11, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: José Lax

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win38%2.55
Draw34%2.88
Zaragoza win28%3.45

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza −0.2554%1.81
Tenerife −0.2546%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under66%1.45
Over34%2.91

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Aarón Martín · Tenerife
24'🟥Sergio González · Tenerife
37'🟨José León · Tenerife
45'🟨Josep Gayá · Tenerife
49'🟨Dani Tasende · Zaragoza
50'⚽David Rodríguez Ramos · Tenerife
60'🟨Malcom Ares · Zaragoza
70'🟨David Rodríguez Ramos · Tenerife
74'⚽Samed Baždar · Zaragoza
75'🟨Bernardo Vital · Zaragoza
79'⚽Ivan Azón

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots18
2On target10
3Corners7
16Fouls15
4Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.590.50
cards avg (last 5)1.602.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz
· Zaragoza
87'⚽Samed Baždar · Zaragoza
90'🟨Waldo Rubio Marin · Tenerife
coach days40.00224.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.201.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.805.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.606.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.102.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.08
dominance (last 5)0.570.53
elo1454.641492.63
elo momentum (last 5)-4.48-29.17
eye test v1-0.320.54
eye trend v10.20-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)50.2055.60
form points (last 5)5.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.43
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
keeper form v10.72—
league points6.0013.00
league rank23.005.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8079.40
possession avg (last 5)52.6049.20
rest days5.986.08
scorer concentration0.290.42
season ppg0.671.44
shot diff avg (last 5)3.401.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.0015.80
skill v10.300.14
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.005.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.605.40
state index-0.21-0.51
sterile dominance v10.19-0.35
threat rate (last 10)0.250.29
threat rate (last 3)0.310.27
threat rate (last 5)0.250.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80