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Levante UD 0–0 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 6, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Dámaso Arcediano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Levante UD win43%2.28
Draw29%3.30
Oviedo win28%3.51

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo −0.2550%1.95
Levante UD −0.2550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.76
Over45%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Abdel Rahim · Oviedo
23'🟨Oriol Rey · Levante UD
40'🟨Dani Calvo · Oviedo
44'🟨David Costas · Oviedo
50'🟨Carlos Álvarez · Levante UD
54'🟨Jorge Cabello · Levante UD

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots12
1On target1
1Corners9
12Fouls21
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLevante UDOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.05—
box share (last 5)0.680.53
cards avg (last 5)1.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ciudad de Valencia
coach days127.0097.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.05—
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.07
corner diff avg (last 5)1.203.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.802.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.006.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.691.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.13
dominance (last 5)0.460.60
elo1577.951535.23
elo momentum (last 5)17.57-16.08
eye test v11.090.04
eye trend v10.000.44
first sub minute (last 10)61.9052.20
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.42
h2 goals (last 10)1.00—
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.30—
keeper form v10.760.72
league points17.0011.00
league rank2.0013.00
matches since blank8.006.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.4084.20
possession avg (last 5)50.0059.60
rest days7.197.00
scorer concentration0.210.33
season ppg2.131.38
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.204.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.0014.80
skill v10.461.25
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.203.30
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.203.80
squad age26.8128.55
state index0.44-0.05
sterile dominance v1-0.040.78
threat rate (last 10)0.260.22
threat rate (last 3)0.320.27
threat rate (last 5)0.280.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00