← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 5, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Andrés Fuentes
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 57% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.22 |
| Burgos win | 19% | 5.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Burgos −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.72 |
| Under | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria |
| 31' | 🟨 | Sergio Arribas · Almeria |
| 38' | 🟥 | Sergio Arribas · Almeria |
| 51' | 🟨 | Nicolás Melamed · Almeria |
| 53' | 🟨 | Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria |
| 56' | 🟨 | David González · Burgos |
| 57' | 🟨 | Aitor Córdoba · Burgos |
| 89' | ⚽ | Alejandro Pozo · Almeria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | UD Almería Stadium |
| coach days | 126.00 | 4.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.35 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1514.67 | 1517.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -54.43 | 15.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| league points | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 6.19 | 6.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.89 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.89 | — |
| state index | -0.79 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |