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Almeria 2–0 Burgos

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 5, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Andrés Fuentes

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win57%1.67
Draw23%4.22
Burgos win19%5.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria −0.7553%1.85
Burgos −0.7547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.72
Under44%2.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'⚽Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria
31'🟨Sergio Arribas · Almeria
38'🟥Sergio Arribas · Almeria
51'🟨Nicolás Melamed · Almeria
53'🟨Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria
56'🟨David González · Burgos
57'🟨Aitor Córdoba · Burgos
89'⚽Alejandro Pozo · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
20Shots17
6On target5
5Corners8
9Fouls10
3Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaBurgos
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.580.61
cards avg (last 5)1.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueUD Almería Stadium
coach days126.004.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.19
corner diff avg (last 5)3.00-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.206.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.205.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.351.81
defensive leak (last 5)0.260.08
dominance (last 5)0.630.39
elo1514.671517.00
elo momentum (last 5)-54.4315.11
eye test v10.430.01
eye trend v1-0.09-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)57.4058.90
form points (last 5)2.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.600.95
h2 goals (last 10)1.501.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
keeper form v10.670.68
league points7.0014.00
league rank20.004.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet6.001.00
matches since win6.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0075.40
possession avg (last 5)57.2046.20
rest days6.196.09
scorer concentration0.380.33
season ppg0.882.00
shot diff avg (last 5)7.40-4.00
shots for avg (last 5)16.808.60
skill v10.89-0.41
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.205.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.40
squad age25.89—
state index-0.790.05
sterile dominance v10.17-0.17
threat rate (last 10)0.320.24
threat rate (last 3)0.300.20
threat rate (last 5)0.300.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60