← Segunda División 2024-25 · Fri, Oct 4, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Pérez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 35% | 24% | 2.75 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 33% | 20% | 2.91 | fair |
| Huesca win | 32% | 56% | 3.11 | value: +73% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cadiz +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Huesca +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 69% | 1.39 |
| Over | 31% | 3.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Matos · Cadiz |
| 40' | 🟨 | Gerard Valentín · Huesca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jorge Pulido · Huesca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Iza Carcelén · Cadiz |
| 45' | 🟨 | Iván Alejo · Cadiz |
| 45' | 🟨 | Fali · Cadiz |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Oscar Sielva · Huesca |
| 48' | ⚽ | Patrick Soko · Huesca |
| 62' | ⚽ | Iker Kortajarena · Huesca |
| 77' | 🟨 | Carlos Fernández · Cadiz |
| 80' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huesca | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio El Alcoraz |
| Jorge Pulido · Huesca |
| 80' | 🟥 | Jorge Pulido · Huesca |
| 86' | ⚽ | Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz |
| 87' | 🟨 | Dani Jiménez · Huesca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 369.00 | 95.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1522.82 | 1564.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.80 | -5.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.69 |
| league points | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 6.18 | 6.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.67 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 29.13 | 28.71 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |