← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Salvador Lax
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 36% | 2.70 |
| Málaga CF win | 35% | 2.80 |
| Elche CF win | 29% | 3.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF +0 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Elche CF +0 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 72% | 1.35 |
| Over | 28% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Agustín Álvarez · Elche CF |
| 20' | 🟨 | David Affengruber · Elche CF |
| 30' | 🟨 | Agustín Álvarez · Elche CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dioni · Málaga CF |
| 49' | ⚽ | Nicolás Fernández · Elche CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Aleix Febas · Elche CF |
| 64' | 🟨 | Daniel Sánchez · Málaga CF |
| 68' | 🟨 | Matia Barzić · Elche CF |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Mourad El Ghezouani · Elche CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Manu Molina · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergio Castel Martínez |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 14 |
| 0 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 21 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio La Rosaleda |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Puga · Málaga CF |
| coach days | 636.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1461.55 | 1457.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.96 | -3.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| league points | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 1.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.08 |
| state index | 0.10 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | 1.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |