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Málaga CF 0–3 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Salvador Lax

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Draw36%2.70
Málaga CF win35%2.80
Elche CF win29%3.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF +054%1.79
Elche CF +046%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under72%1.35
Over28%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Agustín Álvarez · Elche CF
20'🟨David Affengruber · Elche CF
30'🟨Agustín Álvarez · Elche CF
45'🟨Dioni · Málaga CF
49'⚽Nicolás Fernández · Elche CF
55'🟨Aleix Febas · Elche CF
64'🟨Daniel Sánchez · Málaga CF
68'🟨Matia Barzić · Elche CF
77'⚽ (pen)Mourad El Ghezouani · Elche CF
82'🟨Manu Molina · Málaga CF
90'🟨Sergio Castel Martínez

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
5Shots14
0On target8
4Corners5
19Fouls21
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMálaga CFElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.550.59
cards avg (last 5)2.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio La Rosaleda
· Málaga CF
90'🟨Carlos Puga · Málaga CF
coach days636.0089.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.201.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.803.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.501.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.13
dominance (last 5)0.450.60
elo1461.551457.08
elo momentum (last 5)18.96-3.95
eye test v1-0.430.41
eye trend v1-0.020.42
first sub minute (last 10)51.0057.40
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.68—
league points10.007.00
league rank9.0018.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2087.40
possession avg (last 5)52.0063.80
rest days8.026.10
scorer concentration0.33—
season ppg1.671.17
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.804.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.2014.60
skill v10.481.81
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.60
squad age—27.08
state index0.10-0.28
sterile dominance v10.531.38
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.190.20
threat rate (last 5)0.210.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.20