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Huesca 4–1 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Mon, Sep 23, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Sergiu Muresan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win39%2.48
Draw33%2.90
Cordoba win28%3.52

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba −0.2553%1.84
Huesca −0.2547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.49
Over36%2.77

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽ (pen)Oscar Sielva · Huesca
25'🟨Gerard Valentín · Huesca
29'⚽Joaquín Muñoz · Huesca
31'⚽Sergi Enrich · Huesca
33'🟨Carlos Isaac · Cordoba
42'🟨Oscar Sielva · Huesca
44'⚽Adilson · Cordoba
89'⚽Jordi Martín · Huesca
90'🟨Genaro · Cordoba
90'🟥José Antonio Martinez Gil · Cordoba

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
9Shots16
5On target4
3Corners7
9Fouls7
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.600.63
cards avg (last 5)3.601.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Alcoraz
coach days358.00480.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.003.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.003.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.006.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.002.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.13
dominance (last 5)0.460.61
elo1503.801339.49
elo momentum (last 5)11.239.99
eye test v1-0.470.28
eye trend v1-0.140.14
first sub minute (last 10)54.1060.70
form points (last 5)9.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.291.37
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.05
keeper form v10.790.69
league points9.005.00
league rank10.0019.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2079.20
possession avg (last 5)38.8051.80
rest days9.0810.00
scorer concentration0.20—
season ppg1.801.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.804.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.0014.60
skill v1-0.730.29
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.60
state index-0.05-0.48
sterile dominance v1-0.690.02
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.270.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.20